Poll Numbers: Who is winning?

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  • Chart From https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/12/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

  • Image From https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map

With less than a month until the 2020 Presidential election, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the United States election polls. As of now, Biden has 53% of the poll votes whereas Trump has only 43%.

In 2016, the election polls showed that New Mexico was tied between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but this year’s polls show that New Mexico prefers Biden over Trump. A few other states that are like this include; Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, and Nevada. Just because the polls show that Biden will win the election, it is not guaranteed that he will win the electoral college vote; remember that in 2016 Hillary Clinton was favored to win, but Trump ended up as President.

A few of the states’ preferences have not changed from the 2016 election. Some of the states that remain Republican include: Montana, Idaho, North and South Dakota, Wyoming, and Utah. As for the Democratic states, some include: California, Washington, Minnesota, and New York. Overall, 23 states are Democratic, 19 are Republican, and 8 are uncertain as of now.

Allan Lichtman, a political historian who has predicted election outcomes correctly since 1984, has predicted that Biden will win the election this year. Lichtman bases his predictions on the “13 keys”, which are 13 factors that accurately predict election results. Some of these “keys” include the economy, social unrest, and scandals. Lichtman says, “The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year.”