On April 11, House Speaker Paul Ryan announced his retirement. Ryan is one of 37 Republicans this year who have announced their decision not to run for another term in office, marking the greatest party drop-out in the House since World War II. The House Speaker’s official reason for retiring is going home to spend more time with his teenage daughters. Still, with the retirement of such an influential GOP member, the state of the Republican Party in Congress remains uncertain.

President Donald Trump acknowledged Ryan’s decision in a tweet. He said, “Speaker Paul Ryan is a truly good man, and while he will not be seeking re-election, he will leave a legacy of achievement that nobody can question. We are with you Paul.” Nevertheless, some claim that Ryan’s retirement indicates that there is conflict within Congress; Ryan’s relationship to Trump has proven unstable over the course of Trump’s presidency, and many observers attribute the termination of his career to disagreements with Trump’s policies. There is also a speculation that Ryan’s retirement is for personal capital gain given he is waiting until the end of his term in January to retire. This timing will give him an annual pension of $84,930 in comparison to his annual paycheck of $223,500 per year.

Representative Betty McCollum (D-MN) released a statement hoping that the next speaker elected by the House will be someone “who stands up to Trump and fights for a better deal for working families.” With the loss of Ryan from his Wisconsin district, Daily Kos Elections and FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot tracker are predicting an upswing in Democratic votes in Wisconsin’s first congressional district for the year of 2018. As Chairman of the Democratic National Committee Tom Perez said,“The American people are hungry for Democratic leadership, and the Democratic Party is organizing in every single ZIP code to provide it in 2018.” As of mid-April, it’s calculated by several election watchers that the Democrats will win the house vote by seven percentage points. This potential “Democratic wave” is already reclassifying Wisconsin from a “Solid Republican” state to “Lean Republican.” Given this prediction, it is reasonable to conclude that Ryan’s retirement is a timely decision to avoid remaining a House minority leader. Ryan has affirmed that his decision should not widely impact the state of the GOP, saying, “I really do not believe whether I stay or go in 2019 is going to affect a person’s individual race for Congress. If we do our jobs, as we are, we’re going to be fine as a majority.”

Ryan’s impending retirement has now deemed him a “lame duck speaker,” which will likely affect his ability to move any important agendas through the House body and will also taint his status and ability to fundraise for his fellow Republicans. The GOP is at a loss when it comes to Ryan’s retirement, and while the true motives of his announcement are unknown, it is clear to both parties that this upcoming year will be a tough battle for the Republicans.